Climate variability and the outbreaks of cholera in Zanzibar, East Africa: A time series analysis

Rita Reyburn, Deok Ryun Kim, Michael Emch, Ahmed Khatib, Lorenz Von Seidlein, Mohammad Ali

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Global cholera incidence is increasing, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. We examined the impact of climate and ocean environmental variability on cholera outbreaks, and developed a forecasting model for outbreaks in Zanzibar. Routine cholera surveillance reports between 1997 and 2006 were correlated with remotely and locally sensed environmental data. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model determined the impact of climate and environmental variability on cholera. The SARIMA model shows temporal clustering of cholera. A 1° C increase in temperature at 4 months lag resulted in a 2-fold increase of cholera cases, and an increase of 200 mm of rainfall at 2 months lag resulted in a 1.6-fold increase of cholera cases. Temperature and rainfall interaction yielded a significantly positive association ( P <0.04) with cholera at a 1-month lag. These results may be applied to forecast cholera outbreaks, and guide public health resources in controlling cholera in Zanzibar.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)862-869
Number of pages8
JournalAmerican Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Volume84
Issue number6
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 2011

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Eastern Africa
Tanzania
Cholera
Climate
Disease Outbreaks
Temperature
Africa South of the Sahara
Health Resources
Oceans and Seas
Cluster Analysis
Public Health

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Parasitology
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Virology

Cite this

Climate variability and the outbreaks of cholera in Zanzibar, East Africa : A time series analysis. / Reyburn, Rita; Kim, Deok Ryun; Emch, Michael; Khatib, Ahmed; Von Seidlein, Lorenz; Ali, Mohammad.

In: American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Vol. 84, No. 6, 06.2011, p. 862-869.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Reyburn, Rita ; Kim, Deok Ryun ; Emch, Michael ; Khatib, Ahmed ; Von Seidlein, Lorenz ; Ali, Mohammad. / Climate variability and the outbreaks of cholera in Zanzibar, East Africa : A time series analysis. In: American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. 2011 ; Vol. 84, No. 6. pp. 862-869.
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