Child mortality estimation 2013: An overview of updates in estimation methods by the United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation

Leontine Alkema, Jin Rou New, Jon Pedersen, Danzhen You, Phillip Bastian, Jingxian Wu, Tessa Wardlaw, Colin Mathers, Ties Boerma, Jessica Ho, Emi Suzuki, François Pelletier, Kirill Andreev, Patrick Gerland, Danan Gu, Nan Li, Cheryl Sawyer, Thomas Spoorenberg, John Wilmoth, Kenneth HillSimon Cousens, Trevor Croft, Gareth Jones, Michel Guillot, Neff Walker

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Background: In September 2013, the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) published an update of the estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and under-five deaths for all countries. Compared to the UN IGME estimates published in 2012, updated data inputs and a new method for estimating the U5MR were used. Methods: We summarize the new U5MR estimation method, which is a Bayesian B-spline Bias-reduction model, and highlight differences with the previously used method. Differences in UN IGME U5MR estimates as published in 2012 and those published in 2013 are presented and decomposed into differences due to the updated database and differences due to the new estimation method to explain and motivate changes in estimates. Findings: Compared to the previously used method, the new UN IGME estimation method is based on a different trend fitting method that can track (recent) changes in U5MR more closely. The new method provides U5MR estimates that account for data quality issues. Resulting differences in U5MR point estimates between the UN IGME 2012 and 2013 publications are small for the majority of countries but greater than 10 deaths per 1,000 live births for 33 countries in 2011 and 19 countries in 1990. These differences can be explained by the updated database used, the curve fitting method as well as accounting for data quality issues. Changes in the number of deaths were less than 10% on the global level and for the majority of MDG regions. Conclusions: The 2013 UN IGME estimates provide the most recent assessment of levels and trends in U5MR based on all available data and an improved estimation method that allows for closer-to-real-time monitoring of changes in the U5MR and takes account of data quality issues.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere101112
JournalPLoS One
Volume9
Issue number7
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 11 2014

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Child Mortality
United Nations
methodology
death
Databases
Curve fitting
Live Birth
Splines
Publications

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Medicine(all)

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Child mortality estimation 2013 : An overview of updates in estimation methods by the United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation. / Alkema, Leontine; New, Jin Rou; Pedersen, Jon; You, Danzhen; Bastian, Phillip; Wu, Jingxian; Wardlaw, Tessa; Mathers, Colin; Boerma, Ties; Ho, Jessica; Suzuki, Emi; Pelletier, François; Andreev, Kirill; Gerland, Patrick; Gu, Danan; Li, Nan; Sawyer, Cheryl; Spoorenberg, Thomas; Wilmoth, John; Hill, Kenneth; Cousens, Simon; Croft, Trevor; Jones, Gareth; Guillot, Michel; Walker, Neff.

In: PLoS One, Vol. 9, No. 7, e101112, 11.07.2014.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Alkema, L, New, JR, Pedersen, J, You, D, Bastian, P, Wu, J, Wardlaw, T, Mathers, C, Boerma, T, Ho, J, Suzuki, E, Pelletier, F, Andreev, K, Gerland, P, Gu, D, Li, N, Sawyer, C, Spoorenberg, T, Wilmoth, J, Hill, K, Cousens, S, Croft, T, Jones, G, Guillot, M & Walker, N 2014, 'Child mortality estimation 2013: An overview of updates in estimation methods by the United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation', PLoS One, vol. 9, no. 7, e101112. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0101112
Alkema, Leontine ; New, Jin Rou ; Pedersen, Jon ; You, Danzhen ; Bastian, Phillip ; Wu, Jingxian ; Wardlaw, Tessa ; Mathers, Colin ; Boerma, Ties ; Ho, Jessica ; Suzuki, Emi ; Pelletier, François ; Andreev, Kirill ; Gerland, Patrick ; Gu, Danan ; Li, Nan ; Sawyer, Cheryl ; Spoorenberg, Thomas ; Wilmoth, John ; Hill, Kenneth ; Cousens, Simon ; Croft, Trevor ; Jones, Gareth ; Guillot, Michel ; Walker, Neff. / Child mortality estimation 2013 : An overview of updates in estimation methods by the United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation. In: PLoS One. 2014 ; Vol. 9, No. 7.
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abstract = "Background: In September 2013, the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) published an update of the estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and under-five deaths for all countries. Compared to the UN IGME estimates published in 2012, updated data inputs and a new method for estimating the U5MR were used. Methods: We summarize the new U5MR estimation method, which is a Bayesian B-spline Bias-reduction model, and highlight differences with the previously used method. Differences in UN IGME U5MR estimates as published in 2012 and those published in 2013 are presented and decomposed into differences due to the updated database and differences due to the new estimation method to explain and motivate changes in estimates. Findings: Compared to the previously used method, the new UN IGME estimation method is based on a different trend fitting method that can track (recent) changes in U5MR more closely. The new method provides U5MR estimates that account for data quality issues. Resulting differences in U5MR point estimates between the UN IGME 2012 and 2013 publications are small for the majority of countries but greater than 10 deaths per 1,000 live births for 33 countries in 2011 and 19 countries in 1990. These differences can be explained by the updated database used, the curve fitting method as well as accounting for data quality issues. Changes in the number of deaths were less than 10{\%} on the global level and for the majority of MDG regions. Conclusions: The 2013 UN IGME estimates provide the most recent assessment of levels and trends in U5MR based on all available data and an improved estimation method that allows for closer-to-real-time monitoring of changes in the U5MR and takes account of data quality issues.",
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AU - Alkema, Leontine

AU - New, Jin Rou

AU - Pedersen, Jon

AU - You, Danzhen

AU - Bastian, Phillip

AU - Wu, Jingxian

AU - Wardlaw, Tessa

AU - Mathers, Colin

AU - Boerma, Ties

AU - Ho, Jessica

AU - Suzuki, Emi

AU - Pelletier, François

AU - Andreev, Kirill

AU - Gerland, Patrick

AU - Gu, Danan

AU - Li, Nan

AU - Sawyer, Cheryl

AU - Spoorenberg, Thomas

AU - Wilmoth, John

AU - Hill, Kenneth

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AU - Croft, Trevor

AU - Jones, Gareth

AU - Guillot, Michel

AU - Walker, Neff

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N2 - Background: In September 2013, the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) published an update of the estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and under-five deaths for all countries. Compared to the UN IGME estimates published in 2012, updated data inputs and a new method for estimating the U5MR were used. Methods: We summarize the new U5MR estimation method, which is a Bayesian B-spline Bias-reduction model, and highlight differences with the previously used method. Differences in UN IGME U5MR estimates as published in 2012 and those published in 2013 are presented and decomposed into differences due to the updated database and differences due to the new estimation method to explain and motivate changes in estimates. Findings: Compared to the previously used method, the new UN IGME estimation method is based on a different trend fitting method that can track (recent) changes in U5MR more closely. The new method provides U5MR estimates that account for data quality issues. Resulting differences in U5MR point estimates between the UN IGME 2012 and 2013 publications are small for the majority of countries but greater than 10 deaths per 1,000 live births for 33 countries in 2011 and 19 countries in 1990. These differences can be explained by the updated database used, the curve fitting method as well as accounting for data quality issues. Changes in the number of deaths were less than 10% on the global level and for the majority of MDG regions. Conclusions: The 2013 UN IGME estimates provide the most recent assessment of levels and trends in U5MR based on all available data and an improved estimation method that allows for closer-to-real-time monitoring of changes in the U5MR and takes account of data quality issues.

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