TY - JOUR
T1 - Chaotic desynchronization of multistrain diseases
AU - Schwartz, Ira B.
AU - Shaw, Leah B.
AU - Cummings, Derek A.T.
AU - Billings, Lora
AU - Mccrary, Marie
AU - Burke, Donald S.
PY - 2005/12
Y1 - 2005/12
N2 - Multistrain diseases are diseases that consist of several strains, or serotypes. The serotypes may interact by antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), in which infection with a single serotype is asymptomatic, but infection with a second serotype leads to serious illness accompanied by greater infectivity. It has been observed from serotype data of dengue hemorrhagic fever that outbreaks of the four serotypes occur asynchronously. Both autonomous and seasonally driven outbreaks were studied in a model containing ADE. For sufficiently small ADE, the number of infectives of each serotype synchronizes, with outbreaks occurring in phase. When the ADE increases past a threshold, the system becomes chaotic, and infectives of each serotype desynchronize. However, certain groupings of the primary and secondary infectives remain synchronized even in the chaotic regime.
AB - Multistrain diseases are diseases that consist of several strains, or serotypes. The serotypes may interact by antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), in which infection with a single serotype is asymptomatic, but infection with a second serotype leads to serious illness accompanied by greater infectivity. It has been observed from serotype data of dengue hemorrhagic fever that outbreaks of the four serotypes occur asynchronously. Both autonomous and seasonally driven outbreaks were studied in a model containing ADE. For sufficiently small ADE, the number of infectives of each serotype synchronizes, with outbreaks occurring in phase. When the ADE increases past a threshold, the system becomes chaotic, and infectives of each serotype desynchronize. However, certain groupings of the primary and secondary infectives remain synchronized even in the chaotic regime.
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U2 - 10.1103/PhysRevE.72.066201
DO - 10.1103/PhysRevE.72.066201
M3 - Article
C2 - 16486034
AN - SCOPUS:28844461339
SN - 1539-3755
VL - 72
JO - Physical Review E - Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics
JF - Physical Review E - Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics
IS - 6
M1 - 066201
ER -