TY - JOUR
T1 - Association of Online Search Trends With Vaccination in the United States
T2 - June 2020 Through May 2021
AU - Berning, Philipp
AU - Huang, Leu
AU - Razavi, Alexander C.
AU - Boakye, Ellen
AU - Osuji, Ngozi
AU - Stokes, Andrew C.
AU - Martin, Seth S.
AU - Ayers, John W.
AU - Blaha, Michael J.
AU - Dzaye, Omar
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2022 Berning, Huang, Razavi, Boakye, Osuji, Stokes, Martin, Ayers, Blaha and Dzaye.
PY - 2022/4/20
Y1 - 2022/4/20
N2 - Stagnating COVID-19 vaccination rates and vaccine hesitancy remain a threat to public health. Improved strategies for real-time tracking and estimation of population-level behavior regarding vaccinations are needed. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether online search trends for COIVD-19 and influenza mirror vaccination rates. State-level weekly fraction of online searches for top vaccination-related search terms and CDC vaccination data were obtained from June 1, 2020, to May 31, 2021. Next, trends in online search and vaccination data for COVID-19 and influenza were analyzed for visual and quantitative correlation patterns using Spearman’s rank correlation analysis. Online searches in the US for COVID-19 vaccinations increased 2.71-fold (95% CI: 1.98-3.45) in the 4 weeks after the FDA emergency authorization compared to the precedent 4 weeks. In March-April 2021, US online searches reached a plateau that was followed by a decline of 83.3% (95% CI: 31.2%-135.3%) until May 31, 2021. The timing of peaks in online searches varied across US states. Online searches were strongly correlated with vaccination rates (r=0.71, 95% CI: 0.45 - 0.87), preceding actual reported vaccination rates in 44 of 51 states. Online search trends preceded vaccination trends by a median of 3.0 weeks (95% CI: 2.0-4.0 weeks) across all states. For influenza vaccination searches, seasonal peaks in September-October between 2016-2020 were noted. Influenza search trends highly correlated with the timing of actual vaccinations for the 2019-2020 (r=0.82, 95% CI: 0.64 – 0.93) and 2020-2021 season (r=0.91, 95% CI: 0.78 – 0.97). Search trends and real-world vaccination rates are highly correlated. Temporal alignment and correlation levels were higher for influenza vaccinations; however, only online searches for COVID-19 vaccination preceded vaccination trends. These findings indicate that US online search data can potentially guide public health efforts, including policy changes and identifying geographical areas to expand vaccination campaigns.
AB - Stagnating COVID-19 vaccination rates and vaccine hesitancy remain a threat to public health. Improved strategies for real-time tracking and estimation of population-level behavior regarding vaccinations are needed. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether online search trends for COIVD-19 and influenza mirror vaccination rates. State-level weekly fraction of online searches for top vaccination-related search terms and CDC vaccination data were obtained from June 1, 2020, to May 31, 2021. Next, trends in online search and vaccination data for COVID-19 and influenza were analyzed for visual and quantitative correlation patterns using Spearman’s rank correlation analysis. Online searches in the US for COVID-19 vaccinations increased 2.71-fold (95% CI: 1.98-3.45) in the 4 weeks after the FDA emergency authorization compared to the precedent 4 weeks. In March-April 2021, US online searches reached a plateau that was followed by a decline of 83.3% (95% CI: 31.2%-135.3%) until May 31, 2021. The timing of peaks in online searches varied across US states. Online searches were strongly correlated with vaccination rates (r=0.71, 95% CI: 0.45 - 0.87), preceding actual reported vaccination rates in 44 of 51 states. Online search trends preceded vaccination trends by a median of 3.0 weeks (95% CI: 2.0-4.0 weeks) across all states. For influenza vaccination searches, seasonal peaks in September-October between 2016-2020 were noted. Influenza search trends highly correlated with the timing of actual vaccinations for the 2019-2020 (r=0.82, 95% CI: 0.64 – 0.93) and 2020-2021 season (r=0.91, 95% CI: 0.78 – 0.97). Search trends and real-world vaccination rates are highly correlated. Temporal alignment and correlation levels were higher for influenza vaccinations; however, only online searches for COVID-19 vaccination preceded vaccination trends. These findings indicate that US online search data can potentially guide public health efforts, including policy changes and identifying geographical areas to expand vaccination campaigns.
KW - SARS-CoV-2 vaccination
KW - flu vaccination
KW - google trends
KW - influenza vaccination
KW - infodemiology
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85129412256&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85129412256&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3389/fimmu.2022.884211
DO - 10.3389/fimmu.2022.884211
M3 - Article
C2 - 35514956
AN - SCOPUS:85129412256
SN - 1664-3224
VL - 13
JO - Frontiers in immunology
JF - Frontiers in immunology
M1 - 884211
ER -