Association of electrocardiographic and imaging surrogates of left ventricular hypertrophy with incident atrial fibrillation: MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis)

Objectives This study sought to examine the association between left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH), dened by cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) and electrocardiography (ECG), with incident atrial fibrillation (AF). Background Previous studies of the association between AF and LVH were based primarily on echocardiographic measures of LVH. Methods The MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) enrolled 4,942 participants free of clinically recognized cardiovascular disease. Incident AF was based on MESA-ascertained hospital-discharge International Classification of Diseases codes and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services inpatient hospital claims. CMR-LVH was defined as left ventricular mass ≥95th percentile of the MESA population distribution. Eleven ECG-LVH criteria were assessed. The association of LVH with incident AF was evaluated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for CVD risk factors. Results During a median follow-up of 6.9 years, 214 incident AF events were documented. Participants with AF were more likely to be older, hypertensive, and overweight. The risk of AF was greater in participants with CMR-derived LVH (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.04, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.15 to 3.62). AF was associated with ECG-derived LVH measure of Sokolow-Lyon voltage product after adjusting for CMR-LVH (HR: 1.83, 95% CI: 1.06 to 3.14, p = 0.02). The associations with AF for CMR-LVH and Sokolow-Lyon voltage product were attenuated when adjusted for CMR left atrial volumes. Conclusions In a multiethnic cohort of participants without clinically detected cardiovascular disease, both CMR and ECG-derived LVH were associated with incident AF. ECG-LVH showed prognostic significance independent of CMR-LVH. The association was attenuated when adjusted for CMR left atrial volumes.