TY - JOUR
T1 - Analytical considerations in the use of capture to estimate prevalence
T2 - Case studies of the estimation of opiate use in the metropolitan area of Barcelona, Spain
AU - Domingo-Salvany, Antònia
AU - Hartnoll, Richard L.
AU - Maguire, Andrew
AU - Brugal, M. Teresa
AU - Albertín, Pilar
AU - Caylà, Joan A.
AU - Casabona, Jordi
AU - Suelves, Josep M.
PY - 1998/10/15
Y1 - 1998/10/15
N2 - Capture-recapture, an indirect method widely used to estimate undetected populations, has been criticized because it causes problems due to a lack of compliance with several important assumptions and model selection strategies. This paper expands on the problems encountered when applying this methodology to drug abuse estimations, specifically the prevalence of opiate use in the metropolitan area of Barcelona, Spain, in 1993. Three samples of opiate users (from hospital emergency rooms, treatment centers, and prisons) were available in the area studied; an additional sample (mortality data) was analyzed for the city of Barcelona. Log-linear models that provided a good fit were considered, to which further model selection strategies were applied. A total of 3,207 unique individuals aged 15-44 years were identified in the three samples from the greater Barcelona area; the mortality sample from the city of Barcelona contained an additional 83 individuals. Heterogeneity was observed in different age, sex, and residence area subgroups. Population estimates differed widely according to the log-linear model chosen. Minimum Akaike's information criterion model and saturated model estimates were used to produce population prevalence rates. The main problems the authors encountered in this study were related to population definition, source heterogeneity, and assessment of an adequate model, a problem associated with sample size.
AB - Capture-recapture, an indirect method widely used to estimate undetected populations, has been criticized because it causes problems due to a lack of compliance with several important assumptions and model selection strategies. This paper expands on the problems encountered when applying this methodology to drug abuse estimations, specifically the prevalence of opiate use in the metropolitan area of Barcelona, Spain, in 1993. Three samples of opiate users (from hospital emergency rooms, treatment centers, and prisons) were available in the area studied; an additional sample (mortality data) was analyzed for the city of Barcelona. Log-linear models that provided a good fit were considered, to which further model selection strategies were applied. A total of 3,207 unique individuals aged 15-44 years were identified in the three samples from the greater Barcelona area; the mortality sample from the city of Barcelona contained an additional 83 individuals. Heterogeneity was observed in different age, sex, and residence area subgroups. Population estimates differed widely according to the log-linear model chosen. Minimum Akaike's information criterion model and saturated model estimates were used to produce population prevalence rates. The main problems the authors encountered in this study were related to population definition, source heterogeneity, and assessment of an adequate model, a problem associated with sample size.
KW - Heroin dependence
KW - Logistic models
KW - Prevalence
KW - Sample size
KW - Substance abuse
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U2 - 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a009694
DO - 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a009694
M3 - Article
C2 - 9786228
AN - SCOPUS:0032532131
SN - 0002-9262
VL - 148
SP - 732
EP - 740
JO - American journal of epidemiology
JF - American journal of epidemiology
IS - 8
ER -