Analysis of intervention effectiveness using early outbreak transmission dynamics to guide future pandemic management and decision-making in Kuwait

Michael G. Tyshenko; Tamer Oraby; Joseph Longenecker; Harri Vainio; Janvier Gasana; Walid Q. Alali; Mohammad AlSeaidan; Susie ElSaadany; Mustafa Al-Zoughool

doi:10.1016/j.idm.2021.04.003

Analysis of intervention effectiveness using early outbreak transmission dynamics to guide future pandemic management and decision-making in Kuwait

Michael G. Tyshenko, Tamer Oraby, Joseph Longenecker, Harri Vainio, Janvier Gasana, Walid Q. Alali, Mohammad AlSeaidan, Susie ElSaadany, Mustafa Al-Zoughool

School of Medicine

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a World Health Organization designated pandemic that can result in severe symptoms and death that disproportionately affects older patients or those with comorbidities. Kuwait reported its first imported cases of COVID-19 on February 24, 2020. Analysis of data from the first three months of community transmission of the COVID-19 outbreak in Kuwait can provide important guidance for decision-making when dealing with future SARS-CoV-2 epidemic wave management. The analysis of intervention scenarios can help to evaluate the possible impacts of various outbreak control measures going forward which aim to reduce the effective reproduction number during the initial outbreak wave. Herein we use a modified susceptible-exposed-asymptomatic-infectious-removed (SEAIR) transmission model to estimate the outbreak dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Kuwait. We fit case data from the first 96 days in the model to estimate the effective reproduction number and used Google mobility data to refine community contact matrices. The SEAIR modelled scenarios allow for the analysis of various interventions to determine their effectiveness. The model can help inform future pandemic wave management, not only in Kuwait but for other countries as well.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	693-705
Number of pages	13
Journal	Infectious Disease Modelling
Volume	6
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2021.04.003
State	Published - Jan 2021

Keywords

COVID-19
Effective reproduction number
Kuwait
Lockdown
Non-pharmaceutical interventions
SEAIR deterministic Model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Health Policy
Infectious Diseases
Applied Mathematics

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10.1016/j.idm.2021.04.003

Cite this

Tyshenko, M. G., Oraby, T., Longenecker, J., Vainio, H., Gasana, J., Alali, W. Q., AlSeaidan, M., ElSaadany, S., & Al-Zoughool, M. (2021). Analysis of intervention effectiveness using early outbreak transmission dynamics to guide future pandemic management and decision-making in Kuwait. Infectious Disease Modelling, 6, 693-705. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2021.04.003

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abstract = "Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a World Health Organization designated pandemic that can result in severe symptoms and death that disproportionately affects older patients or those with comorbidities. Kuwait reported its first imported cases of COVID-19 on February 24, 2020. Analysis of data from the first three months of community transmission of the COVID-19 outbreak in Kuwait can provide important guidance for decision-making when dealing with future SARS-CoV-2 epidemic wave management. The analysis of intervention scenarios can help to evaluate the possible impacts of various outbreak control measures going forward which aim to reduce the effective reproduction number during the initial outbreak wave. Herein we use a modified susceptible-exposed-asymptomatic-infectious-removed (SEAIR) transmission model to estimate the outbreak dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Kuwait. We fit case data from the first 96 days in the model to estimate the effective reproduction number and used Google mobility data to refine community contact matrices. The SEAIR modelled scenarios allow for the analysis of various interventions to determine their effectiveness. The model can help inform future pandemic wave management, not only in Kuwait but for other countries as well.",

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author = "Tyshenko, {Michael G.} and Tamer Oraby and Joseph Longenecker and Harri Vainio and Janvier Gasana and Alali, {Walid Q.} and Mohammad AlSeaidan and Susie ElSaadany and Mustafa Al-Zoughool",

note = "Funding Information: This study was supported by Kuwait Foundation for the Advancement of Sciences (KFAS) grant number CORONA-46 to Dr. Al-Zoughool. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 The Authors",

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doi = "10.1016/j.idm.2021.04.003",

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AU - Alali, Walid Q.

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Analysis of intervention effectiveness using early outbreak transmission dynamics to guide future pandemic management and decision-making in Kuwait

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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