An agent-based simulation of a Tuberculosis epidemic: Understanding the timing of transmission

Parastu Kasaie, David W. Dowdy, W. David Kelton

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) transmission is a key factor for disease-control policy, but the timing and distribution of transmission and the role of social contacts remain obscure. We develop an agent-based simulation of a TB epidemic in a single population, and consider a hierarchically structured contact network in three levels, typical of airborne diseases. The parameters are adopted from the literature, and the model is calibrated to a setting of high TB incidence. We model the dynamics of transmission at the individual level, and study the timing of secondary infections from a single source throughout the duration of the disease. We compare the patterns of transmission among different networks and discuss implications. Sensitivity analysis of outputs indicates the robustness of the results to variations in the parameter values.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 2013 Winter Simulation Conference - Simulation
Subtitle of host publicationMaking Decisions in a Complex World, WSC 2013
Pages2227-2238
Number of pages12
DOIs
StatePublished - 2013
Event2013 43rd Winter Simulation Conference - Simulation: Making Decisions in a Complex World, WSC 2013 - Washington, DC, United States
Duration: Dec 8 2013Dec 11 2013

Publication series

NameProceedings of the 2013 Winter Simulation Conference - Simulation: Making Decisions in a Complex World, WSC 2013

Other

Other2013 43rd Winter Simulation Conference - Simulation: Making Decisions in a Complex World, WSC 2013
CountryUnited States
CityWashington, DC
Period12/8/1312/11/13

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Modeling and Simulation

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