An agent-based model of mortality shocks, intergenerational effects, and urban crime

Michael Makowsky

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Rational criminals choose crime over lawfulness because it pays better; hence poverty correlates to criminal behavior. This correlation is an insufficient historical explanation. An agent-based model of urban crime, mortality, and exogenous population shocks supplements the standard economic story, closing the gap with an empirical reality that often breaks from trend. Agent decision making within the model is built around a career maximization function, with life expectancy as the key independent variable. Rational choice takes the form of a local information heuristic, resulting in subjectively rational suboptimal decision making. The effects of population shocks are explored using the Crime and Mortality Simulation (CAMSIM), with effects demonstrated to persist across generations. Past social trauma are found to lead to higher crime rates which subsequently decline as the effect degrades, though 'aftershocks' are often experienced.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)15-23
Number of pages9
JournalJASSS
Volume9
Issue number2
StatePublished - Mar 31 2006
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Crime
mortality
offense
decision making
crime rate
criminality
Decision making
life expectancy
supplement
trauma
heuristics
career
poverty
simulation
trend
Economics
economics

Keywords

  • Agent-Based Model
  • Bounded Rationality
  • Crime
  • Life Expectancy
  • Rational Choice

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Social Sciences(all)

Cite this

An agent-based model of mortality shocks, intergenerational effects, and urban crime. / Makowsky, Michael.

In: JASSS, Vol. 9, No. 2, 31.03.2006, p. 15-23.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Makowsky, Michael. / An agent-based model of mortality shocks, intergenerational effects, and urban crime. In: JASSS. 2006 ; Vol. 9, No. 2. pp. 15-23.
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