Absolute risk and predictors of the growth of acute spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage

a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data

VISTA-ICH Collaboration, ICH Growth Individual Patient Data Meta-analysis Collaborators

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Intracerebral haemorrhage growth is associated with poor clinical outcome and is a therapeutic target for improving outcome. We aimed to determine the absolute risk and predictors of intracerebral haemorrhage growth, develop and validate prediction models, and evaluate the added value of CT angiography.

METHODS: In a systematic review of OVID MEDLINE-with additional hand-searching of relevant studies' bibliographies- from Jan 1, 1970, to Dec 31, 2015, we identified observational cohorts and randomised trials with repeat scanning protocols that included at least ten patients with acute intracerebral haemorrhage. We sought individual patient-level data from corresponding authors for patients aged 18 years or older with data available from brain imaging initially done 0·5-24 h and repeated fewer than 6 days after symptom onset, who had baseline intracerebral haemorrhage volume of less than 150 mL, and did not undergo acute treatment that might reduce intracerebral haemorrhage volume. We estimated the absolute risk and predictors of the primary outcome of intracerebral haemorrhage growth (defined as >6 mL increase in intracerebral haemorrhage volume on repeat imaging) using multivariable logistic regression models in development and validation cohorts in four subgroups of patients, using a hierarchical approach: patients not taking anticoagulant therapy at intracerebral haemorrhage onset (who constituted the largest subgroup), patients taking anticoagulant therapy at intracerebral haemorrhage onset, patients from cohorts that included at least some patients taking anticoagulant therapy at intracerebral haemorrhage onset, and patients for whom both information about anticoagulant therapy at intracerebral haemorrhage onset and spot sign on acute CT angiography were known.

FINDINGS: Of 4191 studies identified, 77 were eligible for inclusion. Overall, 36 (47%) cohorts provided data on 5435 eligible patients. 5076 of these patients were not taking anticoagulant therapy at symptom onset (median age 67 years, IQR 56-76), of whom 1009 (20%) had intracerebral haemorrhage growth. Multivariable models of patients with data on antiplatelet therapy use, data on anticoagulant therapy use, and assessment of CT angiography spot sign at symptom onset showed that time from symptom onset to baseline imaging (odds ratio 0·50, 95% CI 0·36-0·70; p<0·0001), intracerebral haemorrhage volume on baseline imaging (7·18, 4·46-11·60; p<0·0001), antiplatelet use (1·68, 1·06-2·66; p=0·026), and anticoagulant use (3·48, 1·96-6·16; p<0·0001) were independent predictors of intracerebral haemorrhage growth (C-index 0·78, 95% CI 0·75-0·82). Addition of CT angiography spot sign (odds ratio 4·46, 95% CI 2·95-6·75; p<0·0001) to the model increased the C-index by 0·05 (95% CI 0·03-0·07).

INTERPRETATION: In this large patient-level meta-analysis, models using four or five predictors had acceptable to good discrimination. These models could inform the location and frequency of observations on patients in clinical practice, explain treatment effects in prior randomised trials, and guide the design of future trials.

FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council and British Heart Foundation.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)885-894
Number of pages10
JournalThe Lancet. Neurology
Volume17
Issue number10
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 1 2018

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Cerebral Hemorrhage
Meta-Analysis
Growth
Anticoagulants
Therapeutics
Logistic Models
Odds Ratio
Bibliography
Age of Onset
Neuroimaging
MEDLINE
Signs and Symptoms
Biomedical Research

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Clinical Neurology

Cite this

Absolute risk and predictors of the growth of acute spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage : a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data. / VISTA-ICH Collaboration; ICH Growth Individual Patient Data Meta-analysis Collaborators.

In: The Lancet. Neurology, Vol. 17, No. 10, 01.10.2018, p. 885-894.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

VISTA-ICH Collaboration ; ICH Growth Individual Patient Data Meta-analysis Collaborators. / Absolute risk and predictors of the growth of acute spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage : a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data. In: The Lancet. Neurology. 2018 ; Vol. 17, No. 10. pp. 885-894.
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TY - JOUR

T1 - Absolute risk and predictors of the growth of acute spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage

T2 - a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data

AU - VISTA-ICH Collaboration

AU - ICH Growth Individual Patient Data Meta-analysis Collaborators

AU - Al-Shahi Salman, Rustam

AU - Frantzias, Joseph

AU - Lee, Robert J.

AU - Lyden, Patrick D.

AU - Battey, Thomas W.K.

AU - Ayres, Alison M.

AU - Goldstein, Joshua N.

AU - Mayer, Stephan A.

AU - Steiner, Thorsten

AU - Wang, Xia

AU - Arima, Hisatomi

AU - Hasegawa, Hitoshi

AU - Oishi, Makoto

AU - Godoy, Daniel A.

AU - Masotti, Luca

AU - Dowlatshahi, Dar

AU - Rodriguez-Luna, David

AU - Molina, Carlos A.

AU - Jang, Dong Kyu

AU - Davalos, Antonio

AU - Castillo, José

AU - Yao, Xiaoying

AU - Claassen, Jan

AU - Volbers, Bastian

AU - Kazui, Seiji

AU - Okada, Yasushi

AU - Fujimoto, Shigeru

AU - Toyoda, Kazunori

AU - Li, Qi

AU - Khoury, Jane

AU - Delgado, Pilar

AU - Sabín, José Álvarez

AU - Hernández-Guillamon, Mar

AU - Prats-Sánchez, Luis

AU - Cai, Chunyan

AU - Kate, Mahesh P.

AU - McCourt, Rebecca

AU - Venkatasubramanian, Chitra

AU - Diringer, Michael N.

AU - Ikeda, Yukio

AU - Worthmann, Hans

AU - Ziai, Wendy C

AU - d'Esterre, Christopher D.

AU - Aviv, Richard I.

AU - Raab, Peter

AU - Murai, Yasuo

AU - Zazulia, Allyson R.

AU - Butcher, Kenneth S.

AU - Seyedsaadat, Seyed Mohammad

AU - Hanley, Daniel F

PY - 2018/10/1

Y1 - 2018/10/1

N2 - BACKGROUND: Intracerebral haemorrhage growth is associated with poor clinical outcome and is a therapeutic target for improving outcome. We aimed to determine the absolute risk and predictors of intracerebral haemorrhage growth, develop and validate prediction models, and evaluate the added value of CT angiography.METHODS: In a systematic review of OVID MEDLINE-with additional hand-searching of relevant studies' bibliographies- from Jan 1, 1970, to Dec 31, 2015, we identified observational cohorts and randomised trials with repeat scanning protocols that included at least ten patients with acute intracerebral haemorrhage. We sought individual patient-level data from corresponding authors for patients aged 18 years or older with data available from brain imaging initially done 0·5-24 h and repeated fewer than 6 days after symptom onset, who had baseline intracerebral haemorrhage volume of less than 150 mL, and did not undergo acute treatment that might reduce intracerebral haemorrhage volume. We estimated the absolute risk and predictors of the primary outcome of intracerebral haemorrhage growth (defined as >6 mL increase in intracerebral haemorrhage volume on repeat imaging) using multivariable logistic regression models in development and validation cohorts in four subgroups of patients, using a hierarchical approach: patients not taking anticoagulant therapy at intracerebral haemorrhage onset (who constituted the largest subgroup), patients taking anticoagulant therapy at intracerebral haemorrhage onset, patients from cohorts that included at least some patients taking anticoagulant therapy at intracerebral haemorrhage onset, and patients for whom both information about anticoagulant therapy at intracerebral haemorrhage onset and spot sign on acute CT angiography were known.FINDINGS: Of 4191 studies identified, 77 were eligible for inclusion. Overall, 36 (47%) cohorts provided data on 5435 eligible patients. 5076 of these patients were not taking anticoagulant therapy at symptom onset (median age 67 years, IQR 56-76), of whom 1009 (20%) had intracerebral haemorrhage growth. Multivariable models of patients with data on antiplatelet therapy use, data on anticoagulant therapy use, and assessment of CT angiography spot sign at symptom onset showed that time from symptom onset to baseline imaging (odds ratio 0·50, 95% CI 0·36-0·70; p<0·0001), intracerebral haemorrhage volume on baseline imaging (7·18, 4·46-11·60; p<0·0001), antiplatelet use (1·68, 1·06-2·66; p=0·026), and anticoagulant use (3·48, 1·96-6·16; p<0·0001) were independent predictors of intracerebral haemorrhage growth (C-index 0·78, 95% CI 0·75-0·82). Addition of CT angiography spot sign (odds ratio 4·46, 95% CI 2·95-6·75; p<0·0001) to the model increased the C-index by 0·05 (95% CI 0·03-0·07).INTERPRETATION: In this large patient-level meta-analysis, models using four or five predictors had acceptable to good discrimination. These models could inform the location and frequency of observations on patients in clinical practice, explain treatment effects in prior randomised trials, and guide the design of future trials.FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council and British Heart Foundation.

AB - BACKGROUND: Intracerebral haemorrhage growth is associated with poor clinical outcome and is a therapeutic target for improving outcome. We aimed to determine the absolute risk and predictors of intracerebral haemorrhage growth, develop and validate prediction models, and evaluate the added value of CT angiography.METHODS: In a systematic review of OVID MEDLINE-with additional hand-searching of relevant studies' bibliographies- from Jan 1, 1970, to Dec 31, 2015, we identified observational cohorts and randomised trials with repeat scanning protocols that included at least ten patients with acute intracerebral haemorrhage. We sought individual patient-level data from corresponding authors for patients aged 18 years or older with data available from brain imaging initially done 0·5-24 h and repeated fewer than 6 days after symptom onset, who had baseline intracerebral haemorrhage volume of less than 150 mL, and did not undergo acute treatment that might reduce intracerebral haemorrhage volume. We estimated the absolute risk and predictors of the primary outcome of intracerebral haemorrhage growth (defined as >6 mL increase in intracerebral haemorrhage volume on repeat imaging) using multivariable logistic regression models in development and validation cohorts in four subgroups of patients, using a hierarchical approach: patients not taking anticoagulant therapy at intracerebral haemorrhage onset (who constituted the largest subgroup), patients taking anticoagulant therapy at intracerebral haemorrhage onset, patients from cohorts that included at least some patients taking anticoagulant therapy at intracerebral haemorrhage onset, and patients for whom both information about anticoagulant therapy at intracerebral haemorrhage onset and spot sign on acute CT angiography were known.FINDINGS: Of 4191 studies identified, 77 were eligible for inclusion. Overall, 36 (47%) cohorts provided data on 5435 eligible patients. 5076 of these patients were not taking anticoagulant therapy at symptom onset (median age 67 years, IQR 56-76), of whom 1009 (20%) had intracerebral haemorrhage growth. Multivariable models of patients with data on antiplatelet therapy use, data on anticoagulant therapy use, and assessment of CT angiography spot sign at symptom onset showed that time from symptom onset to baseline imaging (odds ratio 0·50, 95% CI 0·36-0·70; p<0·0001), intracerebral haemorrhage volume on baseline imaging (7·18, 4·46-11·60; p<0·0001), antiplatelet use (1·68, 1·06-2·66; p=0·026), and anticoagulant use (3·48, 1·96-6·16; p<0·0001) were independent predictors of intracerebral haemorrhage growth (C-index 0·78, 95% CI 0·75-0·82). Addition of CT angiography spot sign (odds ratio 4·46, 95% CI 2·95-6·75; p<0·0001) to the model increased the C-index by 0·05 (95% CI 0·03-0·07).INTERPRETATION: In this large patient-level meta-analysis, models using four or five predictors had acceptable to good discrimination. These models could inform the location and frequency of observations on patients in clinical practice, explain treatment effects in prior randomised trials, and guide the design of future trials.FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council and British Heart Foundation.

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