A Nomogram to Predict Overall Survival and Disease-Free Survival After Curative Resection of Gastric Adenocarcinoma

Yuhree Kim, Gaya Spolverato, Aslam Ejaz, Malcolm H. Squires, George Poultsides, Ryan C. Fields, Mark Bloomston, Sharon M. Weber, Konstantinos Votanopoulos, Alexandra W. Acher, Linda X. Jin, William G. Hawkins, Carl Schmidt, David Kooby, David Worhunsky, Neil Saunders, Edward A. Levine, Clifford S. Cho, Shishir K. Maithel, Timothy M. Pawlik

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Methods: A nomogram to predict DFS and OS following surgical resection of gastric adenocarcinoma was constructed using a multi-institutional cohort of patients who underwent surgery for primary gastric adenocarcinoma at seven major institutions in the US between January 2000 and August 2013. Discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were tested by C-statistic, Kaplan–Meier curves, and calibration plots.

Background: The American Cancer Society projects there will be over 22,000 new cases, resulting in nearly 11,000 deaths, related to gastric adenocarcinoma in the US in 2014. The aim of the current study was to find clinicopathologic variables associated with disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) following curative resection of gastric adenocarcinoma, and create a nomogram for individual risk prediction.

Results: A total of 719 patients who underwent surgery for primary gastric adenocarcinoma were included in the study. Using the backward selection of clinically relevant variables with Akaike information criteria, age, sex, tumor site, depth of invasion, and lymph node ratio (LNR) were selected as factors predictive of OS, while age, tumor site, depth of invasion, and LNR were incorporated in the prediction of DFS. A nomogram was constructed to predict OS and DFS using these variables. Discrimination and calibration of the nomogram revealed good predictive abilities (C-index, DFS 0.711; OS 0.702).

Conclusion: Independent predictors of recurrence and death following surgery for primary gastric adenocarcinoma were used to create a nomogram to predict DFS and OS. The nomogram was able to stratify patients into prognostic groups, and performed well on internal validation.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1828-1835
Number of pages8
JournalAnnals of Surgical Oncology
Volume22
Issue number6
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 1 2015

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Surgery
  • Oncology

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    Kim, Y., Spolverato, G., Ejaz, A., Squires, M. H., Poultsides, G., Fields, R. C., Bloomston, M., Weber, S. M., Votanopoulos, K., Acher, A. W., Jin, L. X., Hawkins, W. G., Schmidt, C., Kooby, D., Worhunsky, D., Saunders, N., Levine, E. A., Cho, C. S., Maithel, S. K., & Pawlik, T. M. (2015). A Nomogram to Predict Overall Survival and Disease-Free Survival After Curative Resection of Gastric Adenocarcinoma. Annals of Surgical Oncology, 22(6), 1828-1835. https://doi.org/10.1245/s10434-014-4230-4