A comparison of the abilities of nine scoring algorithms in predicting mortality

J. Wayne Meredith, Gregory Evans, Patrick D. Kilgo, Ellen J Mackenzie, Turner Osler, Gerald McGwin, Stephen Cohn, Thomas Esposito, Thomas Gennarelli, Michael Hawkins, Charles Lucas, Charles Mock, Michael Rotondo, Loring Rue

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Objective: The purpose of this study was to compare the abilities of nine Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS)- and International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9)-based scoring algorithms in predicting mortality. Methods: The scores collected on 76,871 incidents consist of four AIS-based algorithms (Injury Severity Score [ISS], New Injury Severity Score, Anatomic Profile Score [APS], and maximum AIS [maxAIS],) their four ICD to AIS mapped counterparts, and the ICD-9-based ISS (ICISS). A 10-fold cross-validation was performed and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine algorithm discrimination. Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics were computed to gauge goodness-of-fit, and model refinement measured variance of predicted probabilities. Results: Overall, the ICISS has the best discrimination and model refinement, whereas the APS has the best Hosmer-Lemeshow performance. ICD-9 to AIS mapped scores have worse discrimination than their AIS-based counterparts, but still show moderate performance. Conclusion: Differences in performance were relatively small. Complex scores such as the ICISS and the APS provide improvement in discrimination relative to the maxAIS and the ISS. Trauma registries should move to include the ICISS and the APS. The ISS and max-AIS perform moderately well and have bedside benefits.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)621-628
Number of pages8
JournalJournal of Trauma - Injury, Infection and Critical Care
Volume53
Issue number4
StatePublished - Oct 1 2002

Fingerprint

Abbreviated Injury Scale
International Classification of Diseases
Injury Severity Score
Mortality
ROC Curve
Registries
Wounds and Injuries

Keywords

  • ICISS
  • Injury scoring
  • Injury Severity Score
  • Outcome prediction
  • Trauma

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Surgery

Cite this

Meredith, J. W., Evans, G., Kilgo, P. D., Mackenzie, E. J., Osler, T., McGwin, G., ... Rue, L. (2002). A comparison of the abilities of nine scoring algorithms in predicting mortality. Journal of Trauma - Injury, Infection and Critical Care, 53(4), 621-628.

A comparison of the abilities of nine scoring algorithms in predicting mortality. / Meredith, J. Wayne; Evans, Gregory; Kilgo, Patrick D.; Mackenzie, Ellen J; Osler, Turner; McGwin, Gerald; Cohn, Stephen; Esposito, Thomas; Gennarelli, Thomas; Hawkins, Michael; Lucas, Charles; Mock, Charles; Rotondo, Michael; Rue, Loring.

In: Journal of Trauma - Injury, Infection and Critical Care, Vol. 53, No. 4, 01.10.2002, p. 621-628.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Meredith, JW, Evans, G, Kilgo, PD, Mackenzie, EJ, Osler, T, McGwin, G, Cohn, S, Esposito, T, Gennarelli, T, Hawkins, M, Lucas, C, Mock, C, Rotondo, M & Rue, L 2002, 'A comparison of the abilities of nine scoring algorithms in predicting mortality', Journal of Trauma - Injury, Infection and Critical Care, vol. 53, no. 4, pp. 621-628.
Meredith, J. Wayne ; Evans, Gregory ; Kilgo, Patrick D. ; Mackenzie, Ellen J ; Osler, Turner ; McGwin, Gerald ; Cohn, Stephen ; Esposito, Thomas ; Gennarelli, Thomas ; Hawkins, Michael ; Lucas, Charles ; Mock, Charles ; Rotondo, Michael ; Rue, Loring. / A comparison of the abilities of nine scoring algorithms in predicting mortality. In: Journal of Trauma - Injury, Infection and Critical Care. 2002 ; Vol. 53, No. 4. pp. 621-628.
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